Loading · جارٍ التحميل
Programme
What happens to family-physician clinics if we change the threshold or the starting age?
Model: referral rate from the programme cohort × completion. Family-physician slots from the 2026 capacity plan (assumed 2,600/year). Labelled model, not a forecast.
Referrals to family physicians per year
1,175
220 per 10,000 checks
Today's setting
45% of 2,600 slots
| Threshold | Start age | Referrals a year | Per 10,000 checks | Slot use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stricter (≤ −1.96) | 50 | 799 | 149.6 | 31% |
| Standard (≤ −1.645) | 50 | 1,175 | 220 | 45% |
| Looser (≤ −1.0) | 50 | 1,903 | 356.4 | 73% |
| Standard (≤ −1.645) | 45 | 1,574 | 220 | 61% |
| Looser (≤ −1.0) | 45 | 2,550 | 356.4 | 98% |
The shaded row is today's programme setting. Above 100% means waiting lists at family physicians.